Airports Council International World (ACI-World) this week projected that global air traffic will reach 7.1 billion in 2022, 77 percent of the 2019 pre-pandemic mark, adding that it expects the industry to completely recover by 2024.
The predictions were part of the new ACI-World quarterly report, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Airports—and the Path to Recovery,” which touted the recent momentum created by the lifting of many health measures and the relaxation of most travel restrictions in many European countries and in the Americas
For the full year 2021, the COVID-19 outbreak removed 4.6 billion passengers compared to 2019, representing a loss of 50.3 percent of global passenger traffic. Over the first two years of the pandemic, the COVID-19 outbreak reduced the number of passengers at the world’s airports by 10.2 billion, the report estimated.
“Considering my recent trips and based on the latest data, there is no doubt that many travelers are eager to resume traveling—and the early summer volumes are a testament to it,” ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira said. “With many countries taking steps towards the return to a certain normality, lifting almost all the health measures and travel restrictions, we expect a jump in air travel demand in the second half of 2022.”
In the report, ACI-World said upside trends include pent-up demand for air travel and the continued acceleration of the easing of travel restrictions as global vaccination rates continue to rise.
But in stressing these remain uncertain times for the global commercial aviation industry, it also cited several potential downside risks, including geopolitical conflicts, an economic downturn, supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, and the potential for another COVID variant outbreak.
“The overall recovery will mainly be driven by the recovery of domestic passenger traffic but will be hampered by the recovery stagnation in Asia-Pacific and a slower recovery in global international travel,” the report said, “Global domestic passenger traffic is still expected to reach 2019 levels in late 2023 with full-year 2023 traffic at par with 2019 levels. However, global international passenger traffic will require almost one more year to recover and is forecast to reach 2019 levels only by the second half of 2024.”
