Global international air traffic is projected to reach 4.22 billion passengers, marking an 8.3% growth over 2024, the m1nd-set Annual Forecast Report shows. While all world regions will see an increase in air traffic in 2025, aside from Asia Pacific all world regions will experience a decline in their share of global traffic, m1nd-set predicts.
North America is expected to see growth to 442 million international passengers in 2025, up from 411 million this year.
M1nd-set also forecast travel retail shopping trends for 2025, drawing on interviews with more than 250,000 global consumers across all world regions. The data research firm said there is a “clear shift in priorities among consumers, regarding what influences them to enter and purchase in stores in the travel retail environment.”
The retail environment is of increasing importance, the report said. “A powerful and engaging retail environment plays a crucial role in influencing consumer behavior, as evidenced by the increasing prevalence of impulse visits in travel retail. European shoppers demonstrate the highest tendency for impulse visits followed by shoppers from the Americas,” m1nd-set said. “Consumers from the Middle East and Africa as well as from the Asia Pacific region are less inclined to visit the shops on impulse, reflecting distinct regional trends.”
“Gender and purpose of travel also influence impulse visit patterns,” the report continued. “Women are more likely than men to make unplanned shop visits, while leisure travelers demonstrate a higher propensity for visiting the duty free stores on impulse compared to business travelers.”
The research showed that the desire to browse and explore shops is the main reason for visiting the duty free shops. Self-indulgence or self-treating has seen a notable increase, now positioned as the fifth most important driver, and is particularly prevalent as a visit driver among Gen Z shoppers.
Price, which in the past was the main driver of duty free purchases, has receded in importance. “The importance of value-related factors for influencing purchases at Duty Free shops has steadily declined over the past five years and decision-making is instead now influenced by a combination of factors, including convenience, time to choose, self-indulgence, brand loyalty and trendy brands, as well as value for money,” the report said.
As price loses significance as a decision driver, in-store experiences are becoming increasingly important purchase drivers in travel retail and now outrank price advantage as the number one purchase driver, the m1nd-set report showed. The in-store experience is defined by several factors, including attractive packaging, special activations, the possibility to try and test products, attractive displays, and special events and themed experiences.
