Global airport traffic levels may not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until 4Q24, Fitch Ratings said in its latest Global Airport Traffic Tracker report. Fitch said it expects the traffic level recovery speeds to vary regionally due to differences in traffic profiles – including whether flights are for business or leisure – as well as due to differing government support schemes and travel restrictions.
“We can expect to see air travel change significantly over the next few years as lockdowns keep traffic levels down,” said Jeffrey Lack, director, Fitch Ratings. “Domestic and leisure travel will probably recover much earlier than international and business travel.”
Fitch’s expectations for full traffic recovery ranges from 2Q21 to 4Q24, although the timing and shape of the recovery are uncertain. The U.S. and major western European countries are expected to be last to recover, while airports in China and India are expected to see recovery as early as next year.
Airport performance is vulnerable to significant worsening of the pandemic – even though future lockdowns may be less stringent, given their high economic impact. Airport performance is linked to airlines’ strength, and many of these are going bankrupt or facing liquidity issues.
