By September 2020 international air passenger totals could drop by as many as 1.2 billion travelers according to the latest projections from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). In its most pessimistic forecasting, the Montreal-based United Nations special agency predicted global capacity could drop by 67 percent, and airline revenues could be off by $253 billion.
A more optimistic forecast from ICAO shows a decline of 705 million travelers in the first nine months of 2000. Under the optimistic scenario, capacity would drop 41 percent and airline revenues would fall by $160 million.
“As overall severity and duration of the pandemic are still uncertain, ICAO has developed six different recovery paths under two indicative scenarios to explore the potential short-term economic implication of the COVID-19 pandemic,” advised ICAO Secretary General Dr. Fang Liu in a message to Representatives of ICAO’s Member States.
Europe and the Asia-Pacific will be hardest hit by the capacity and revenue impacts, followed by North America. In North America, ICAO’s optimistic scenario had a passenger decline of 53.41 million, a capacity slump of 36.5 percent and airline revenue losses of $17.27 billion. The more pessimistic approach forecast 87.54 million fewer passengers, a capacity decline of 62.1 percent and an airline revenue drop of $28.21 billion.
