Only two U.S. airports stand to see a sharp increase in travel between the U.S. and Cuba in the near-term future, an analysis from Boyd Group International says.
New rules put in place by President Barack Obama make it easier to visit Cuba, but the report said any spike in traditional leisure travel or business travel is years away and will be dependent on a number of fundamental policy changes on the part of the Cuban government, none of which are affected by the recent changes in U.S. policy.
The study, titled “Cuba: An Independent Analysis of US-Cuba Air Service Potential,” projects that most of the immediate travel will come from Cuban-Americans traveling to the island to visit relatives. It projects that Miami International (MIA) and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International (FLL) will be the main beneficiaries under the new rules.
The study notes that nearly 60 percent of all Cuban-Americans reside in Southeast Florida.
“The supposed bonanza of Cuba travel from airports around the country is mostly hype,” says Michael Boyd, president of the Colorado-based consulting firm.
“The fundamental challenges are lack of infrastructure and restrictions on tourist travel throughout this very exciting country,” says Boyd. “Even if full unlimited scheduled air service were immediately allowed, the fact is that there aren’t the hotel rooms, the ground transportation or the other systems that can accommodate massive increases in travelers.”
For the near term, the airline beneficiaries are expected to be American Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, all of which have a substantial presence at either MIA or FLL and are in a strong position to provide the additional charter flights that may result from the liberalized travel restrictions. There also will be very robust potential for independent U.S. commuter airlines, as there will be traffic demand to other Cuban cities that is not sufficient for large airliners but perfect for small turboprops, the study says.
Under the new rules from the White House, which went into effect Jan. 16, travelers will have to certify that their visits are for educational, religious, cultural, journalistic, humanitarian or family purposes, among other permitted categories. Visitors will need visas from the Cuban government.
