A new forecast from the U.S. Travel Association predicts U.S. travel revenue will drop by 45 percent by the end of this year, as the organization renewed calls for additional federal measures to support the industry through recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
The report, done by independent research firm Tourism Economics, projects domestic travel spending will fall 40 percent during the year to $583 billion, while international inbound spending is expected to drop 75 percent to $39 billion.
Total domestic trips taken by U.S. residents are expected to fall 30 percent from 2019, 1.6 billion—the lowest figure since 1991, another recession year.
“The data is telling us that travel and tourism has been more severely damaged than any other U.S. industry by the economic fallout of the health crisis,” said Tori Emerson Barnes, U.S. Travel Association executive vice president for public affairs and policy. “Given that travel employed one in 10 Americans and was the [second top] U.S. export before the pandemic, supporting this industry through to the recovery phase ought to be a national priority.”
The U.S. Travel Association is calling for specific policy priorities to boost the domestic travel industry, including extending Paycheck Protection Program eligibility to destination marketing organizations (DMOs), tax incentives for a strong and safe restart of the travel economy, including a temporary travel tax credit; and protection from frivolous COVID-related lawsuits for businesses that follow proper health and safety guidelines.
The group is also requesting a federal backstop for the issuance of pandemic risk insurance to give businesses financial cover from future outbreaks or another wave of infections—similar to the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act.
“Our asks for lawmakers are substantial, but they’re also simple: we need relief, protection, and stimulus for the travel industry to make it past the worst of the crisis and help power an economic recovery,” said Emerson Barnes.
The forecast does predict that total U.S. travel spending will rebound in subsequent years, reaching $1.05 trillion in 2023, only slightly off the $1.13 billion generated in 2019.
